Dry brush lines the landscape in Ukumehame on Wednesday. The National Weather Service is predicting below-average rainfall for the wet season that begins this month, which could lead to increased risk of “out-of-season” fires. The Maui News / MATTHEW THAYER photo
Below-average rainfall on a large scale could increase the risk for “out-of-season” brush fires during Hawaii’s wet season, which began this month and runs though April.
Kevin Kodama, a hydrologist with the National Weather Service on Oahu, said that normally during the wet season, rains allow vegetation to “green up again” and “your fire risk lowers.”
“In this case we are not expecting to see substantial improvement in the fuels,” Kodama said of the vegetation during a Wednesday morning news conference on the weather service’s wet season rainfall outlook for the state.
Because of the lower rainfall predicted, there may be out-of-season brush fires “because it’s going to stay dry.”
He added that he “wouldn’t be surprised if Diamond Head stays brown the whole time,” referring to the landmark on Oahu.
Because of the low rainfall predicted, widespread moderate drought, or the D1 category under the U.S. Drought Monitor, is anticipated, with embedded areas ranging from severe drought in the D2 category to exceptional drought in the D4 category, the highest drought condition.
More than 40 percent of the state could potentially be in severe to exceptional drought by the end of February, with the drought expected to continue into the 2024 dry season, which begins in May.
All of this will impact nonirrigated crops and pastures, water supply systems utilizing surface water inputs and residents on rainfall catchment systems.
When asked about the prediction of low rainfall and how people can prepare, Maui County Water Supply Director John Stufflebean said via text Wednesday that the department will send out more information this week.
Kodama said that “red flag” warnings could be issued late in the wet season as the potential for stronger winds increases. Red flags occur when there is low humidity, dry conditions and strong winds, as there were shortly before the Aug. 8 wildfires that broke out Upcountry and in Lahaina.
The Maui Fire Department said Wednesday that it relies on the National Weather Service when it comes to preparing for dry conditions.
“We take precautions under high risk conditions by adding staffing and in some cases prepositioning resources,” MFD said.
The public can also prepare and help by keeping their landscaping low, lean and clean; clearing dry vegetation from around their homes and exercising extreme caution to avoid starting fires.
MFD said community leaders and the public can visit Hawaii wildfire.org for more information on how to prepare for and prevent wildfires.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, the current El Nino is likely to peak as a strong event and continue into spring, Kodama said. The weather pattern has already started in Hawaii because it has continually been dry.
Kodama said “conditions are expected to get worse,” alluding to the forecasted drought conditions by the end of February.
Also during this wet season, there is a higher likelihood of large north shore surf events, especially in January and February.
But even with the drought forecasts, Kodama says people should still be prepared for isolated heavy rain events, warning that flash floods can occur and people should be vigilant.
While there have yet to be signs that the wet season has started, Kodama said “we’ll see what happens next week.”
According to the NWS website, there could be “enhanced moisture” from the tropics into the state Monday through Tuesday, potentially bringing an increase of showers over the islands, including normally dry leeward areas.
But the forecast discussion also said recent trends show a decreasing likelihood of a widespread heavy rain event for the state, keeping most significant rainfall north and west of the state.
As for the most recent dry season, which ran from May through September, Kodama said most locations had near- to below-average rainfall.
The worst impacts were on Maui and Hawaii island, with large brush fires on both islands, including the devastating wildfires on Aug. 8 on Maui.
He said drought reached the extreme, or D3 category, in leeward Maui and localized areas of Hawaii island at the end of the dry season.
The 2023 dry season began a bit late, but drought developed in June, then spread and intensified through the rest of the dry season.
Severe drought was seen in all four counties by the end of the dry season.
This past dry season was the eighth driest in the last 30 years, based on eight key sites, a weather service news release said.
* Staff Writer Melissa Tanji can be reached at mtanji@mauinews.com.
Dry brush lines the landscape in Ukumehame on Wednesday. The National Weather Service is predicting below-average rainfall for the wet season that begins this month, which could lead to increased risk of “out-of-season” fires. The Maui News / MATTHEW THAYER photoToday's breaking news and more in your inbox
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